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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest shock.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans ascending together. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still